XDSFL Dynasty League Mock Draft Round 1

Our Dynasty League is entering it's 3rd season and I can tell there's a very strong uptick in terms of players doing research and taking the league seriously. As a result, I've been asked a lot more questions this off season than last. The biggest issue everyone is having is with our upcoming Rookie Draft. Some players place too high or low value on their picks. Some don't know what to do with the pick they've got. I thought it'd be fun to do a mock draft to give everyone an idea of how I see their team. The draft choices I made were based on need more than anything else. You'll notice there's a glaring omission by the time it's over and I welcome any arguments over it.

1.01 - GUCCI GUNNERS

Pick - Trent Richardson

Merwin is in the first year of a large rebuild. Impulsive moves over the course of the last two years have left him in a poor spot in terms of points production. While I think his biggest problem is at Wide Receiver, his choice must be Trent Richardson. If there was any doubt, it was put to rest when Cleveland drafted him and everyone realized he'd be a feature Running Back rather than RBBC. If he ends up being everything people think, he'll prove to be the cornerstone of Merwin's rebuild. He has had Ryan Williams sitting on IR (picked up in the 3rd round last year due to draft being just before the regular season) and will be poised to use him. Jonathan Stewart is waiting to explode as well. Those 3 should make a great foundation of Backs.

1.02 - MEAN MACHINES

Pick - Michael Floyd

This is slotted because Rob has made it clear that's the route he's going and I frankly have no reason not to believe him. Drew Brees and Matt Forte are his only real point producers. Personally I would have traded down to somewhere in the mid 1st and pick up a RB2/WR2. His top Receiver is Steve Smith and he knows that isn't going to last at 32 years old. Rob has Stevie Johnson as well. With Floyd, the 3 should make for a strong starting line up. While I anticipate Rob will draft Justin Blackmon, Floyd is a comparable Receiver who ended up in a far better situation in Arizona than Blackmon in Jacksonville. He'll get a lot of targets with Fitzgerald double teamed, a lot like the Jones/White situation in Atlanta.

1.03 - THE BRADY'S

Pick - Doug Martin

Terry has substantial Running Back issues that need to be addressed ASAP. Prior to a trade for Michael Bush in the off season, his top Running Back last year was Willis McGahee. Considering his age, and the fact the system will no longer be run based with Denver adding Peyton Manning, that point total will substantially drop. Out of all rookie Running Backs, Martin ended up in the best spot to add immediate strong production. If Blount can't hold onto the Football, Martin won't just be leading RBBC, he'll be a rare feature back in the NFL.

1.04 - THE VOYAGERS

Pick - David Wilson

This was the first team I actually had to give thought to. Scott has built a solid team of young talent across all positions. I expect much of the same with his picking up David Wilson. At present, Scott's top point getter is Frank Gore. He's on his last legs and I figure he'll be run until the wheels come off. After that Scott has DeMarco Murray and Roy Helu as his next viable choices. Wilson being drafted to New York was a perfect fit on a couple of levels. He'll get to split (likely 35/65) carries with Bradshaw. He's got great hands in a pass heavy offense. I expect him to produce right off the hop, even more so if Bradshaw's foot continues to act up.

1.05 - THE GUCCI GUNNERS (Acquired from THE ALABAMA TICKS)

Pick - Justin Blackmon
Seems odd to see Blackmon fall to 5th but that'll happen when you're drafted to one of the worst pass offenses in the league. He'll be splitting targets with Laurent Robinson. They have a God awful Quarterback and it's a brand new coaching staff in place. While I think his talent will shine through after Gabbert is replaced, I don't anticipate real production out of Blackmon for a while. Merwin's biggest issue while rebuilding is finding a viable WR2 after Marshall. He should draft the WR BPA and that'd be Blackmon.

1.06 - HIGHLIGHT REEL

Pick - Robert Griffen III

I love my team in every aspect except Quarterback. I have Big Ben and while he's a low end QB1, he's also been destroyed by injuries over the years. I anticipate his fantasy production will start to slow over the next couple of years. I anticipate RGIII will have an immediate impact, even in the awful Washington system. Ben will be my guy for the next couple of years but RGIII hopefully will take the reigns afterwards.

1.07 - P IN THE V

Pick - Kendell Wright

Ben has major issues at Wide Receiver. His top producer was Mike Wallace and then after that, no receiver broke 120 points. If you want to split hairs, Ben does have Rob Gronkowski who made up a ridiculous amount of points week to week. Ben needs a Receiver more than anyone else in the league. I actually have Wright higher than Blackmon on my Wide Receiver rankings based on the system he was drafted into. He'll have an immediate impact in a very young, wide spread and high powered offense. It's a no brainer draft here.

1.08 - THE SEXY LEPRECHAUNS

Pick - Coby Fleener

I've been saying over the course of the first two seasons of our Dynasty League that Scott has by far the best team. It's young and well balanced with a legit QB1, 2 x RB1 and 2 x WR1 at its foundation. If there was one gap I'd fill it's TE. Fleener is looking to be a monster and immediate producer with the Colts. He went to school with Andrew Luck and will end up being his safety net Receiver. With the way the Tight End role is changing, it's like picking up another WR without burning the roster spot.

1.09 - THE GUCCI GUNNERS (acquired from THE COMMISH)

Pick - Alshon Jeffrey
Pre draft I would have placed whichever of Miller/Wilson/Martin ended up at the bottom end of the first round. However, Miller will end up being a Kick Returner for years to come in the Dolphins system so long as Thomas and Bush are splitting carries. As such, it's back to Wide Receiver and Jeffrey is the best fit. Some might make an argument for Stephen Hill or Mohamed Sanu. The former is in an awful passing system. The latter is still in a system trying to figure itself out. If anything I like Sanu over Hill in terms of fantasy production. In any case, Jeffrey has conditioning issues that need to be addressed but he was drafted to an ideal system. He'll spread the field with Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler has a rocket arm. It's a WR handcuff at first look but if the Bears offense clicks then there'll be plenty of points to spread around.

1.10 - SAY WHAT AGAIN
Pick - Isaiah Pead
I project a good amount of options in Pacifico's spot, primarily at Wide Receiver. However, his primary need is at Running Back. With Steven Jackson on his way down and possibly out in the next couple of years, Pead is the natural successor. He's already projected to create a true RBBC and could end up a feature Running Back when Jackson slows down or stalls. It's a natural fit for Pacifico. Letting Pead slip out of the first round would be a big mistake.

So it should be obvious by now that I don't have Andrew Luck being drafted in the first round of our Rookie Draft. Some people might think I'm crazy but as I said at the start, I did this mock draft based on need. The only people I saw with a need for Luck were Terry and Merwin. Terry seems like a great fit with Brady only having three more years but passing on a Running Back in the first round basically kills any chance he'll get one at all by the time his 13th pick rolls around. It's a glaring problem on his team that needs to be addressed. Merwin could use Luck immediately, even with both Mannings on his roster. However, he has needs at RB & WR and they should be addressed first. If anyone else takes him, they'll be giving up a likely immediate producer for one of their needs over carrying a back up Quarterback for years.

XDSFL BREAKDOWN - Say What Again

SAY WHAT AGAIN ROSTER (Current as of 05/01)

My feelings on Pacifico's team are no secret. I felt it was an over achieving team that was the product of an extraordinary set of circumstances all the way to the title. If left unchanged, there's no doubt in my mind that this team would fall right back to reality and in the bottom 4 of this league. With that being said, there are some very strong components that not only produce now but will for many years to come. Matt Ryan posted up top 10 numbers in yards, Touchdowns and overall Fantasy Points. Adrian Peterson & Steven Jackson both put up 180+ Fantasy Points last season. Hakeem Nicks and Julio Jones are 24 & 23 respectively and put up around 150 Fantasy Points last year. The big guns are in place, but there's a severe lack of depth and it shows in the production.

Pacifico has picks 1.10 2.10 3.10 4.10 5.10

Pacifico doesn't have immediate needs so his draft will come down to BPA. It's going to be a tough draft coming from the bottom. Extensive research will be needed to get maximum value out of the 3rd - 5th rounders. They're probably better suited drafting players with 1 or 2 years in the league projected to break out rather than rookies.

PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of value.

Matt Ryan
Adrian Peterson
Steven Jackson
Hakeem Nicks
Julio Jones
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense

There's only a few legitimate QB1's in the league right now and Matt Ryan is one of them. He's posted up 3000 yards in every season he's played in. His Touchdowns/Year has increased all 4 years he's been in the league. He has the major benefit of playing all his home games in a dome (see Peyton Manning & Drew Brees). He also has 2 legitimate WR1's in Roddy White & Julio Jones and a TE1 in Anthony Gonzales. At 26 years old, Ryan has got a good 8 more years of high level production. He should not be moved.

Julio Jones is exactly what everyone expected coming into the league but not exactly what was expected Fantasy wise. He posted up 147 points last season but the number is very deceiving. He had 1 game at 30 points, 1 at 22 and 1 at 20. Further to the point, the 20 point game was in week 17, which means its a wash. With 52 points off 2 weeks, it's obvious the rest of the weeks suffer. On the plus side, he posted up 50+ points across weeks 13 - 16 so he plays well down the stretch. He's got all the tools to be a monster Wide Receiver. He's tall, posts 4/40 speed, gets off the jam well and has insane vertical. His numbers were solid as a rookie. If his 2nd year is anything close he'll be another player that can't be moved.

Nicks is another young monster WR. He's posted up back to back 1000 yard seasons. He had a dip in TD production in 2011 but that'll happen when someone like Victor Cruz comes out of nowhere to scoop TD's. Yardage more than anything is the important factor in WR's though. He's got a great QB throwing to him, he's 24 years old, great vertical, very fast and in a pass heavy offense. He's another player to watch as the offense is re-balanced (watch for David Wilson to burn WR's on targets this year) but he's another core player and shouldn't be moved.

RECOMMENDATIONS
I consider both of Pacifico's top Running Backs a sell high. Peterson is someone whose trade value is at its peak right now. He posted up monster numbers despite missing 1/4 of the season. However, his injury was a torn ACL and he is anything but a finesse Running Back. I anticipate that his workload is about to get a severe drop. Also, it'll be very interesting to see how much he's willing to dig in for extra yards or to break tackles coming off that injury. I figure Pacifico will wait and see. Truth be told I'd likely do the same. However, if his production falls, not only will he not get max value in a trade, his stock will drastically drop. On the other side, Steven Jackson is simply a victim of his own style. Like Peterson he's a grinder. Jackson has posted up at least 1000 Rushing Yards over 7 years. If you watch his footage, those aren't breakaway yards. He's hitting the line and busting through for short gains every week. He'll be turning 29 coming into this season. It's very telling that St. Louis drafted Isaiah Pead in the 2nd round of the draft. The writing is on the wall for Jackson. While Peterson is a wait and see, I would highly recommend moving Steven Jackson to a team looking to make a run.

There's a lot of trash that needs to be cleared off of Pacifico's roster. Christian Ponder, Chad Henne, Kahlil Bell, Kevin Smith, Plaxico Burress and Kyle Rudolph are all worthless in terms of consistent production. Taiwan Jones and Montario Hardesty are both on the cusp of being worthless depending on how spring training goes. Jones had trade value until Goodson was traded to Oakland. Hardesty had value until Cleveland drafted Richardson.

The 10th overall pick should be traded immediately. It has little to no value to Pacifico in this state but could be traded either to move up or just out for a solid RB3/WR3/TE behind Peterson/Jackson or Jones/Nicks. If the pick is retained, I'd suggest getting value at the spot and picking up Coby Fleener. He'll be an immediate upgrade over Rudolph and likely an upgrade over Pettigrew.

FINAL THOUGHTS
Pacifico has a team that over achieved and now could bite him in the ass in terms of the rebuild he was slated to be on last season. I projected this team to finish around 7th last year. At 4th in each round of drafting, a lot of critical holes could have been filled with high potential youth or traded for strong established depth. Picking 10th, it's going to be really tough draft. The Running Back corps desperately needs to be addressed. It's got maybe 1 year left of high level production and then it's going to crash and burn without new blood. I love his Receivers and his Quarterback situation is set for a long time. A small upgrade at Tight End and it'll round it out. After that it's a lot of depth maintenance.

XDSFL Breakdown - The Commish

COMMISH ROSTER (Current as of 04/16)

Andy's team strikes me as one that's on the verge of either exploding or imploding. When I look at the roster and the point totals, I have to give it a double take because the players involved don't look like they should be putting up those kinds of numbers. Even now in the off season I have serious doubts about a lot of the roster. However, if the players of whom I have doubt are as steady as last year, Andy's team will be outright scary this year.

Ray Rice is the best fantasy Running Back in the league. AJ Green not only lived up to the hype in his rookie year but more than exceeded it. At 25 and 23 years old respectively, they'll be the foundation of this team for years to come. My curiosity is the players in the RB2 & WR2 position on the team. Marshawn Lynch had the breakout season of his career last year. However, looking at the numbers a little further is scary from a Dynasty perspective. He carried the ball nearly 300 times last year but only averaged 4 Yards Per Carry. That is a hell of a lot of grinding in the trenches. Seattle didn't make any real effort to secure another Running Back in the off season. If Lynch continues to be the feature back with that kind of workload, he'll be destroyed within 2 more seasons. On the Receiver end, it's a lot of what ifs. Jennings is the obvious WR2 but a breakdown of his numbers last year should send off alarms. Aaron Rodgers put up career bests in yards and eclipsed his best TD year by 17. With that being said, Jennings had 3 fewer TD's than last year. What's more important to watch though is that he had 20% less targets than the year before despite Rodgers passing numbers soaring. There's so much potential for the team to blow up but the second line of support could just as easily implode.

Andy has picks 2.09 3.09 4.09 5.09

The 1.09 move for Mendenhall obviously didn't pay off. He's sidelined with an ACL tear and isn't even projected to play the 2012 season at present. Even if that's not accurate, considering the style of play in the Steelers system, his effectiveness will be greatly reduced. The late picks will necessitate a lot of extensive research looking for sleepers. None of the big guns or even the 2nd tier of players that can produce will be available at 19th pick. There's an obvious need at Tight End on Andy's team. Dwayne Allen would seem to be a great fit in that spot for it's value.

PLAYERS ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of quality.

Philip Rivers
Ray Rice
Marshawn Lynch
CJ Spiller
AJ Green
Greg Jennings
Demaryius Thomas

Ray Rice was the best Running Back in the league bar none last year. He put up 2000+ all purpose yards and 15 touchdowns. What's scary is that 1/3 of his yards came from passing plays. At 25 years old with no major injuries, Rice is in a position to be a top 3 Fantasy Back for the next 3 - 5 years. He can't be moved at any price.

AJ Green was the #1 pick in last year's rookie draft and was well deserving of the pick. At first glance his numbers don't look that impressive against other WR1's. However, a WR1 should be able to provide 1000 yards and 9 Touchdowns over the course of 16 games and Greek was almost there. Last year in a Rookie QB system, Green hit 1100 all purpose yards and 7 TD's. There's no reason at all to believe his production will fall short any time soon short of injury. If he can sustain that production or slightly increase it, he'll be the next Calvin Johnson in terms of worth. He should not be moved.

RECOMMENDATIONS

I was a little surprised to see that Andy passed on moving both Spiller and Thomas. At present, I consider both as huge sell highs. Spiller got a chance to really shine last year when Fred Jackson went down. However, he'll either be relegated back to where he was prior to injury or end up in a RBBC this year. Thomas had a mediocre year last year but he was also in a Tebow system. With Peyton Manning taking the helm, a lot of folks believe he's due to have his breakout year. I have my doubts, mainly because Manning has played his whole career indoors and Denver isn't exactly temperate after September. I think both guys should be moved. Considering Andy's draft position, they could be moved for a high 2nd or mid 1st in package. If either can't produce to expectation this year, their value will plummet.

Tight End needs to be shored up. Hernandez had the best year of his short career last year but the numbers are deceiving. Of his 135 Fantasy Points, 22 of them were in a meaningless week 17. He's the 2nd choice for TE behind Gronkowski. He's also going to see less targets with New England upgrading at Wide Receiver. While I don't think Hernandez should be traded, I do think Andy should look to trade for at least 1 more TE or draft the best TE available in the rookie draft.

FINAL THOUGHTS
I know my review carries a heavy doom and gloom. I still think it's a very big work in progress. If the week 12 miracle of all miracles hadn't occurred last year, Andy would be drafting 1.04 instead of 1.09, which is exactly where I would have pegged his team in terms of rebuild. Considering it overachieved, it set a lot of weird wheels in motion. There are simply too many what ifs or projected drop in production across the board right now to think the team a contender. In a year I could be eating crow but right now I wouldn't be confident in this team having as strong a year without upgrades to shore up consistency.

XDSFL Breakdown - The Sexy Leprechauns

THE SEXY LEPRECHAUNS ROSTER (Current as of 04/08)

When I look at Danon's team I think "he should win" every year. Every aspect of his team is not only built for high production but it's got years ahead of it before it'll require rebuilding. That's exactly how a dynasty team should look. Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the league and at 28 will be at that level for 6 - 8 more years. Danon has 4 Running Backs at RB2 level or higher and all are 26 years old or younger. He has 4 Wide Receivers at WR2 level or higher and Miles Austin is the oldest one at 27. His kicker and Defense were both ranked 2nd overall in our league last season. If it wasn't for his single need at Tight End, I'd consider Danon to have a perfect Fantasy Football team.

Danon has picks 1.08 2.08 3.08 4.08 5.08

When you don't have needs it's hard to analyse or recommend a move in the draft. In the end it'll just come down to BPA.

PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of value.

Aaron Rodgers
LeSean McCoy
Jamaal Charles
Percy Harvin
Miles Austin
Sebastian Janikowski
Ravens Defense

Rodgers was the best QB last year bar none. He beat Drew Brees for most fantasy points and didn't play week 17. He only had one game all year where he put up less than 20 Fantasy Points. He doesn't put up the passing yards of a Brees or Brady but he rushes far more than either of them. He's also 4 years younger than Brees and 6 years younger than Brady. If this Dynasty League were to be restarted from scratch, Rodgers would be, beyond a shadow of a doubt, the #1 pick in the draft. I can't even fathom what kind of offer it'd take to move him.

LeSean McCoy is perfect for the Eagles offense. He's fast, strong, has great hands, and can be used in any number of packages. He was the Eagles top rusher and led the team in Yards Per Carry at a whopping 19. He put up 1600 all purpose yards and a ridiculous 20 touchdowns with only 1 fumble. Oh yeah, he's only 23 years old. Again, I can't fathom an offer that moves him off the roster.

It's a little strange that Harvin doesn't get more talk as an elite Fantasy Wide Receiver. He hasn't had a year where he didn't put up at least 170 points. That includes his rookie year. It should be noted that Harvin's production dropped dramatically in the first half of last year. His chronic migraine problem was obviously giving him issues. However, the loss of AP resulted in increased opportunity in the second half and he rebounded well. If he were older, I'd say he was a sell high. However; at 23 years old and a Fantasy average of 182 points over 3 years, I'd have to be nuts to recommend moving him.

Janikowski is the best Place Kicker in the league. Akers may have better Fantasy numbers because of the offense in SF but in terms of reliable PK over long distance there's no one better than Janikowski. He kicked 2 successful 60+ yard Field Goals last year. I don't even know how many 50+ yarders. At 34, he's almost considered young for an elite Kicker. Short of him breaking his leg, I'd never move Janikowski off my roster.

RECOMMENDATIONS
There isn't much I can scrutinize aside from the obvious issue at Tight End. While I think it's stupid to draft a Tight End in the 1st round, I do believe you should draft based on need. It's a tough spot. Both Fleener and Allen "should" be there at 18th overall in our rookie draft. However, I have serious doubts Fleener will be there as someone will make a reach based on all the hype he's getting. Still, Allen would be a fine pick in that spot without overpaying at 1.08

FINAL THOUGHTS
It's the overall best team in our league and likely will be for the next few years.

XDSFL Breakdown - P IN THE V

P IN THE V ROSTER (Current as of 04/06)

Last year I said on a pretty regular basis that Ben had the best team with the worst luck. He'd put up a ridiculous amount of points and just happen to run into someone else who was having just having a better week. There's a lot to like about his team at first glance. While inconsistent on an NFL level, Romo is a true Fantasy QB1. MJD looked like his best days were behind him 2 years ago only to have an amazing resurgence on an awful team this year. If/when Wallace gets paid, he'll be 25 years old and an elite WR1 for the next 5 years. The addition of Peyton Manning will only benefit Decker (I see him at the WR1 over Thomas). Gronk turned out to be a far bigger monster than I think anyone could have realized last year. If he can get his health back to 100% and McDaniels doesn't rob him of too many targets, he'll be TE1 level for another 6 or 7 years.

On the flip side, once you get past the amazing 1st level of each of the players on Ben's team, there isn't much else. Reggie Bush had an extraordinary year last year with Daniel Thomas sidelined and the offense finally opening up with Morre and Marshall. Now Marshall is gone, Moore is unlikely to start and Thomas will be splitting carries again. Felix Jones and Ben Tate are both great Backs stuck behind monsters and will never see consistent points. Tolbert ended up in the worst position possible as a 3rd down Fullback in Carolina. The rest of the receiving corps is a mish mash of WR3 level Receivers. Manningham has the potential to be a sleeper but the offensive system doesn't suit his style and he'll be floundering among a sea of Receivers in a short yardage West Coast offense.

The team is in need of retooling for depth in order to consistently compete. The level of talent between the 1st line and the rest is far too large to be relied on for steady wins.

PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of quality.


Tony Romo
Maurice Jones Drew
Mike Wallace
Rob Gronkowski
Packers Defense


If this was a year ago, I would have considered MJD a sell high. The load the Jaguars put on him every year is disgusting. If Rashad Jennings hadn't gone down in the pre-season, I'm convinced that MJD would have seen a drastic change in the way he was used. Those believing him to be a sell high would have been proven right and life goes on. Of course things didn't go that way at all. Not only did he not drop in production, he had the best year of his career in terms of all purpose yardage. MJD just turned 27 and if he can sustain this kind of production 3 more years then it'd be insane to suggest moving him right now. 29 may be another story.

The Packers are a garbage NFL defense but they're a fantastic Fantasy defense. They only had 1 negative point game all of last year and that was in week 17 giving up 41 points to the Lions. Shockingly it was only a -1 point night. The reason being the Packers are huge in terms of take aways. 31 Interceptions, 29 Sacks, 7 Fumble Recoveries and 5 Defensive TD's. It was good enough for a 5th place Fantasy Finish vs 29th overall in the NFL Rankings.

RECOMMENDATIONS
Ben's immediate needs are at Wide Receiver. With the exception of Wallace and to a lesser extent Decker, the rest of the players could be waived and I wouldn't consider it a detriment to his team. His first priority coming into the draft should be grabbing one of the many talented Receivers available. He should end up with a player like Wright, Jeffrey or Randle at 7th overall. The 2.07 spot is tough as the pool of talent thins quickly after 1 - 15. I think at 2.07 and considering his needs, I'd look to either trade up for a higher 2nd rounder or trade the pick + player for immediate help in the WR2 range.

FINAL THOUGHTS
If Ben can find one more RB2 + WR2 it'll make all the difference this coming season. There's a lot of what ifs this year, especially at Running Back. If things go badly, the team is going to be crippled past it's 4 big players. It all comes down to depth.

XDSFL Breakdown - Highlight Reel

HIGHLIGHT REEL ROSTER (Current as of 04/04)

This is going to be a little strange writing about what I think I'm doing right and wrong at this point in time. It's likely going to come off like a brag so I'll apologize in advance.

ANALYSIS
This team is built with Running Backs at the core for consistency and Wide Receivers as a secondary for big points that I hope to get but won't always have the luxury of getting. Foster, Johnson & Jackson combined for 585 points last year. That's with Foster missing 4 games, Jackson missing 6 games and CJ never truly finding his legs. The addition of Ryan Matthews through an off season trade will essentially substitute the production Jackson had and drop 6 years in age. As such, all 3 starting Running Backs will have RB1 production this year and will be 26 or younger at the start of the season.

The Wide Receiver corps is a combination of youth and high end production. Both Welker (30) and V-Jax (29) had their best Fantasy seasons ever last season. Brown, Cruz & D-Jax are all 25 or younger. I expect D-Jax to return to form after he got his contract extension and doesn't have to worry about getting hurt without getting paid. That's 5 WR1 level receivers that can be swapped in and out depending on matchups.

I was fortunate to grab Jimmy Graham in the 2nd round of our draft last year off an odd drop by Rob. He's proven to be a top 3 TE in a perfect system for him and is only 25 years old.

I have picks 1.06 3.06 3.07 4.06 5.06

I essentially crippled my draft in order to make a stronger run for the title this year. 1.09 was packaged with Brandon Marshall to get Chris Johnson back. 2.06 was packaged with Kenny Britt and Mike Williams to pick up Ryan Matthews. While I know where 1.06 must go, the later picks are going to be difficult. A lot of research will have to go into finding sleepers. Last year I grabbed Antonio Brown at 3.05 so no one should be overlooked.

PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of quality.

Ben Roethlisberger
Arian Foster
Ryan Matthews
Chris Johnson
Victor Cruz
Antonio Brown
Jimmy Graham

At the present time there are 3 truly elite Fantasy Running Backs. Foster, Rice and McCoy. Prior to his major knee reconstruction I would have put Peterson in that mix. Considering his age, style of play and nature of surgery that's no longer the case. Despite nagging hamstring issues, Foster still managed to put up 250 points this past season. That's with missing 4 games including week 17, which artificially inflates stats. I expect similar production for the next 3 - 5 years.

I consider Jimmy Graham a gift. I was all set to try and make a trade for him last year and then Rob dropped him for no apparent reason. With the exception of Andy, I don't think anyone else was aware of just how great Graham would be coming into last season. Andy passed on grabbing a TE in the 2nd as he was in the midst of rebuild so it was a no brainer for me. He's a TE that puts up elite WR1 numbers (1300 yards + 11 TD's last year). It's like getting a bonus WR. Considering his age, the offensive system he's in and having a top 3 QB throwing to him, he'll be starting every week for years.

RECOMMENDATIONS
My Quarterback situation needs to be addressed immediately. Roethlisberger has been sliding from high QB1 down to mid QB2 status over the last couple of years. He had his 2nd most passing yards but also had more attempts than any other year of his career. He also had the least amount of rushing yards, no rushing TD's and the 2nd most fumbles of his career. The first thing that needs to be addressed with my team is drafting a Quarterback. I'm fortunate in that the needs of our league in the 1.01 - 1.05 are such that it'd be an extraordinary reach for anyone to take Luck or RGIII ahead of any number of Backs or Receivers. I have zero doubt that one QB or the other will fall to me at 1.06 and will be picked up. If for some outside reason both are taken, it means a high level RB/WR will be waiting so it's all gravy.

If looking at the team from the outside, I'd recommend moving Fred Jackson, Vincent Jackson and Wes Welker on a sell high based on age and nothing else. No one has wanted to pick up either Jackson in early off season trading despite offers to fill obvious holes in rosters. Fred put up 170 points over 11 games. Vincent put up yet another 1000+ yard season and tied his own best with 9 TD's in a system where Rivers was nowhere near his previous levels and the offense was dominated by the run. Welker is a sell high for a team looking to make a run. He put up 1600 all purpose yards and 9 TD's last year.

FINAL THOUGHTS
The team is built young and produces high. With an acquisition at Quarterback the primary need of the team will be addressed. After that it just comes down to smart drafting.

XDSFL Breakdown - The Alabama Ticks

THE ALABAMA TICKS ROSTER (Current as of 04/02)

ANALYSIS
Eric has a team that I believe epitomizes a ReDraft team in a Dynasty league. It's got a few heavy hitters but the rest of the pieces aren't really of any consequence. Typical fantasy logic is to build a young consistent team across the board so you can overcome shortcomings. This especially holds true in the latter part of the year when your older heavy hitters start feeling the effects of the season more and more. That being said, there were two parts of his team last year that absolutely shocked me. Cam Newton came into the NFL and destroyed every team he faced. When Eric drafted Newton last year I literally laughed at the choice. There wouldn't have been a chance in hell I draft him that high. Pretty sure he's the only one laughing now. Newton will be a Dynasty stud and a staple of Eric's team for the next decade. There was also Darren Sproles, who thrived in a new offensive system after apparently being stifled in San Diego. Those two combined for 620 points alone last year. That's seriously polarized production.

Eric has picks 2.05 3.05 5.05

It's concerning to see that Eric only has 3 players 25 and younger and that he's missing his 1st round pick (sent to Merwin with Ryan Grant for Dwayne Bowe). The team is built to win now but considering the age of the team and no top young talent coming in, the rebuild after this year or possibly next will be ridiculously extensive.

PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of quality

Cameron Newton
Darren McFadden
Darren Sproles
Dwayne Bowe
Jason Witten
David Akers
San Francisco Defense


As I touched on earlier, Cam Newton must never be moved off Eric's roster. All the tools that he had in college that most people thought wouldn't translate to the pro level did just that. It's kind of sick when your QB is a TD vulture for RB's but Newton rushed for 14 touchdowns last year. His passing numbers are QB2 level but if he continues to rush in that 600 - 700 range it will more than make up for it. There are RB2's that would kill for that kind of production.

McFadden is one of those guys where if I was his owner I'd be giving him 1 more year to make a real decision about his future. When he's healthy, he's one of the best RB's in the entire league. The problem is that he's almost never healthy and it's been established he's a very slow healer. His one true upside is that he's only 24 years old and has time to string a set of seasons together. At present he's far too high a producer to move but if he goes down again for any length of time that should be a clear sign to sell off. He'd probably fetch great value in terms of future picks.

Not only was David Akers the best kicker in the league last year, he outproduced the next closest kickers by 30 points. His 8 missed FG's on 52 attempts is a little high but considering the nature of SF's offense, that's to be expected. That team simply doesn't take it to the house as much as other top level teams. Kickers seem to have an indefinite lifespan in the NFL (I'm convinced 40 years old is prime) so Akers should be a staple for Eric for years to come.

I'm not big on Defenses being a staple of teams but I wanted to touch on something scary when doing research. San Francisco was the only team in the entire league last year that didn't have a negative point game. In fact they only had one Zero game all year. If your defense gives up nothing every week they've done their job. Any other points is gravy.

RECOMMENDATIONS
This should be pretty obvious. With the exception of Quarterback, Eric's entire team needs a serious injection of youth. This kind of team is great in the short term. If this was a ReDraft league, it'd be ideal but when looking ahead there's no way this can be sustained. Even a low priority like the SF DEF will lose players as FA comes each year. As I posted on our message board weeks ago, I classify Sproles as a sell high. I fully expect DC's to have better ways to contain him this year. It doesn't help that Sean Payton won't be calling the shots either. Sproles could be sold as an amazing sell high for picks both this year and 1st/2nd next year. However Eric wants to go about it, youth should be on the mind sooner rather than later.

FINAL THOUGHTS
I expect Eric to be a serious threat this year. His team is built for a title run with McFadden starting again. After this year though, it's going to be a hard tumble from the top.