XDSFL Dynasty League Mock Draft Round 1

Our Dynasty League is entering it's 3rd season and I can tell there's a very strong uptick in terms of players doing research and taking the league seriously. As a result, I've been asked a lot more questions this off season than last. The biggest issue everyone is having is with our upcoming Rookie Draft. Some players place too high or low value on their picks. Some don't know what to do with the pick they've got. I thought it'd be fun to do a mock draft to give everyone an idea of how I see their team. The draft choices I made were based on need more than anything else. You'll notice there's a glaring omission by the time it's over and I welcome any arguments over it.

1.01 - GUCCI GUNNERS

Pick - Trent Richardson

Merwin is in the first year of a large rebuild. Impulsive moves over the course of the last two years have left him in a poor spot in terms of points production. While I think his biggest problem is at Wide Receiver, his choice must be Trent Richardson. If there was any doubt, it was put to rest when Cleveland drafted him and everyone realized he'd be a feature Running Back rather than RBBC. If he ends up being everything people think, he'll prove to be the cornerstone of Merwin's rebuild. He has had Ryan Williams sitting on IR (picked up in the 3rd round last year due to draft being just before the regular season) and will be poised to use him. Jonathan Stewart is waiting to explode as well. Those 3 should make a great foundation of Backs.

1.02 - MEAN MACHINES

Pick - Michael Floyd

This is slotted because Rob has made it clear that's the route he's going and I frankly have no reason not to believe him. Drew Brees and Matt Forte are his only real point producers. Personally I would have traded down to somewhere in the mid 1st and pick up a RB2/WR2. His top Receiver is Steve Smith and he knows that isn't going to last at 32 years old. Rob has Stevie Johnson as well. With Floyd, the 3 should make for a strong starting line up. While I anticipate Rob will draft Justin Blackmon, Floyd is a comparable Receiver who ended up in a far better situation in Arizona than Blackmon in Jacksonville. He'll get a lot of targets with Fitzgerald double teamed, a lot like the Jones/White situation in Atlanta.

1.03 - THE BRADY'S

Pick - Doug Martin

Terry has substantial Running Back issues that need to be addressed ASAP. Prior to a trade for Michael Bush in the off season, his top Running Back last year was Willis McGahee. Considering his age, and the fact the system will no longer be run based with Denver adding Peyton Manning, that point total will substantially drop. Out of all rookie Running Backs, Martin ended up in the best spot to add immediate strong production. If Blount can't hold onto the Football, Martin won't just be leading RBBC, he'll be a rare feature back in the NFL.

1.04 - THE VOYAGERS

Pick - David Wilson

This was the first team I actually had to give thought to. Scott has built a solid team of young talent across all positions. I expect much of the same with his picking up David Wilson. At present, Scott's top point getter is Frank Gore. He's on his last legs and I figure he'll be run until the wheels come off. After that Scott has DeMarco Murray and Roy Helu as his next viable choices. Wilson being drafted to New York was a perfect fit on a couple of levels. He'll get to split (likely 35/65) carries with Bradshaw. He's got great hands in a pass heavy offense. I expect him to produce right off the hop, even more so if Bradshaw's foot continues to act up.

1.05 - THE GUCCI GUNNERS (Acquired from THE ALABAMA TICKS)

Pick - Justin Blackmon
Seems odd to see Blackmon fall to 5th but that'll happen when you're drafted to one of the worst pass offenses in the league. He'll be splitting targets with Laurent Robinson. They have a God awful Quarterback and it's a brand new coaching staff in place. While I think his talent will shine through after Gabbert is replaced, I don't anticipate real production out of Blackmon for a while. Merwin's biggest issue while rebuilding is finding a viable WR2 after Marshall. He should draft the WR BPA and that'd be Blackmon.

1.06 - HIGHLIGHT REEL

Pick - Robert Griffen III

I love my team in every aspect except Quarterback. I have Big Ben and while he's a low end QB1, he's also been destroyed by injuries over the years. I anticipate his fantasy production will start to slow over the next couple of years. I anticipate RGIII will have an immediate impact, even in the awful Washington system. Ben will be my guy for the next couple of years but RGIII hopefully will take the reigns afterwards.

1.07 - P IN THE V

Pick - Kendell Wright

Ben has major issues at Wide Receiver. His top producer was Mike Wallace and then after that, no receiver broke 120 points. If you want to split hairs, Ben does have Rob Gronkowski who made up a ridiculous amount of points week to week. Ben needs a Receiver more than anyone else in the league. I actually have Wright higher than Blackmon on my Wide Receiver rankings based on the system he was drafted into. He'll have an immediate impact in a very young, wide spread and high powered offense. It's a no brainer draft here.

1.08 - THE SEXY LEPRECHAUNS

Pick - Coby Fleener

I've been saying over the course of the first two seasons of our Dynasty League that Scott has by far the best team. It's young and well balanced with a legit QB1, 2 x RB1 and 2 x WR1 at its foundation. If there was one gap I'd fill it's TE. Fleener is looking to be a monster and immediate producer with the Colts. He went to school with Andrew Luck and will end up being his safety net Receiver. With the way the Tight End role is changing, it's like picking up another WR without burning the roster spot.

1.09 - THE GUCCI GUNNERS (acquired from THE COMMISH)

Pick - Alshon Jeffrey
Pre draft I would have placed whichever of Miller/Wilson/Martin ended up at the bottom end of the first round. However, Miller will end up being a Kick Returner for years to come in the Dolphins system so long as Thomas and Bush are splitting carries. As such, it's back to Wide Receiver and Jeffrey is the best fit. Some might make an argument for Stephen Hill or Mohamed Sanu. The former is in an awful passing system. The latter is still in a system trying to figure itself out. If anything I like Sanu over Hill in terms of fantasy production. In any case, Jeffrey has conditioning issues that need to be addressed but he was drafted to an ideal system. He'll spread the field with Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler has a rocket arm. It's a WR handcuff at first look but if the Bears offense clicks then there'll be plenty of points to spread around.

1.10 - SAY WHAT AGAIN
Pick - Isaiah Pead
I project a good amount of options in Pacifico's spot, primarily at Wide Receiver. However, his primary need is at Running Back. With Steven Jackson on his way down and possibly out in the next couple of years, Pead is the natural successor. He's already projected to create a true RBBC and could end up a feature Running Back when Jackson slows down or stalls. It's a natural fit for Pacifico. Letting Pead slip out of the first round would be a big mistake.

So it should be obvious by now that I don't have Andrew Luck being drafted in the first round of our Rookie Draft. Some people might think I'm crazy but as I said at the start, I did this mock draft based on need. The only people I saw with a need for Luck were Terry and Merwin. Terry seems like a great fit with Brady only having three more years but passing on a Running Back in the first round basically kills any chance he'll get one at all by the time his 13th pick rolls around. It's a glaring problem on his team that needs to be addressed. Merwin could use Luck immediately, even with both Mannings on his roster. However, he has needs at RB & WR and they should be addressed first. If anyone else takes him, they'll be giving up a likely immediate producer for one of their needs over carrying a back up Quarterback for years.

XDSFL BREAKDOWN - Say What Again

SAY WHAT AGAIN ROSTER (Current as of 05/01)

My feelings on Pacifico's team are no secret. I felt it was an over achieving team that was the product of an extraordinary set of circumstances all the way to the title. If left unchanged, there's no doubt in my mind that this team would fall right back to reality and in the bottom 4 of this league. With that being said, there are some very strong components that not only produce now but will for many years to come. Matt Ryan posted up top 10 numbers in yards, Touchdowns and overall Fantasy Points. Adrian Peterson & Steven Jackson both put up 180+ Fantasy Points last season. Hakeem Nicks and Julio Jones are 24 & 23 respectively and put up around 150 Fantasy Points last year. The big guns are in place, but there's a severe lack of depth and it shows in the production.

Pacifico has picks 1.10 2.10 3.10 4.10 5.10

Pacifico doesn't have immediate needs so his draft will come down to BPA. It's going to be a tough draft coming from the bottom. Extensive research will be needed to get maximum value out of the 3rd - 5th rounders. They're probably better suited drafting players with 1 or 2 years in the league projected to break out rather than rookies.

PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of value.

Matt Ryan
Adrian Peterson
Steven Jackson
Hakeem Nicks
Julio Jones
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense

There's only a few legitimate QB1's in the league right now and Matt Ryan is one of them. He's posted up 3000 yards in every season he's played in. His Touchdowns/Year has increased all 4 years he's been in the league. He has the major benefit of playing all his home games in a dome (see Peyton Manning & Drew Brees). He also has 2 legitimate WR1's in Roddy White & Julio Jones and a TE1 in Anthony Gonzales. At 26 years old, Ryan has got a good 8 more years of high level production. He should not be moved.

Julio Jones is exactly what everyone expected coming into the league but not exactly what was expected Fantasy wise. He posted up 147 points last season but the number is very deceiving. He had 1 game at 30 points, 1 at 22 and 1 at 20. Further to the point, the 20 point game was in week 17, which means its a wash. With 52 points off 2 weeks, it's obvious the rest of the weeks suffer. On the plus side, he posted up 50+ points across weeks 13 - 16 so he plays well down the stretch. He's got all the tools to be a monster Wide Receiver. He's tall, posts 4/40 speed, gets off the jam well and has insane vertical. His numbers were solid as a rookie. If his 2nd year is anything close he'll be another player that can't be moved.

Nicks is another young monster WR. He's posted up back to back 1000 yard seasons. He had a dip in TD production in 2011 but that'll happen when someone like Victor Cruz comes out of nowhere to scoop TD's. Yardage more than anything is the important factor in WR's though. He's got a great QB throwing to him, he's 24 years old, great vertical, very fast and in a pass heavy offense. He's another player to watch as the offense is re-balanced (watch for David Wilson to burn WR's on targets this year) but he's another core player and shouldn't be moved.

RECOMMENDATIONS
I consider both of Pacifico's top Running Backs a sell high. Peterson is someone whose trade value is at its peak right now. He posted up monster numbers despite missing 1/4 of the season. However, his injury was a torn ACL and he is anything but a finesse Running Back. I anticipate that his workload is about to get a severe drop. Also, it'll be very interesting to see how much he's willing to dig in for extra yards or to break tackles coming off that injury. I figure Pacifico will wait and see. Truth be told I'd likely do the same. However, if his production falls, not only will he not get max value in a trade, his stock will drastically drop. On the other side, Steven Jackson is simply a victim of his own style. Like Peterson he's a grinder. Jackson has posted up at least 1000 Rushing Yards over 7 years. If you watch his footage, those aren't breakaway yards. He's hitting the line and busting through for short gains every week. He'll be turning 29 coming into this season. It's very telling that St. Louis drafted Isaiah Pead in the 2nd round of the draft. The writing is on the wall for Jackson. While Peterson is a wait and see, I would highly recommend moving Steven Jackson to a team looking to make a run.

There's a lot of trash that needs to be cleared off of Pacifico's roster. Christian Ponder, Chad Henne, Kahlil Bell, Kevin Smith, Plaxico Burress and Kyle Rudolph are all worthless in terms of consistent production. Taiwan Jones and Montario Hardesty are both on the cusp of being worthless depending on how spring training goes. Jones had trade value until Goodson was traded to Oakland. Hardesty had value until Cleveland drafted Richardson.

The 10th overall pick should be traded immediately. It has little to no value to Pacifico in this state but could be traded either to move up or just out for a solid RB3/WR3/TE behind Peterson/Jackson or Jones/Nicks. If the pick is retained, I'd suggest getting value at the spot and picking up Coby Fleener. He'll be an immediate upgrade over Rudolph and likely an upgrade over Pettigrew.

FINAL THOUGHTS
Pacifico has a team that over achieved and now could bite him in the ass in terms of the rebuild he was slated to be on last season. I projected this team to finish around 7th last year. At 4th in each round of drafting, a lot of critical holes could have been filled with high potential youth or traded for strong established depth. Picking 10th, it's going to be really tough draft. The Running Back corps desperately needs to be addressed. It's got maybe 1 year left of high level production and then it's going to crash and burn without new blood. I love his Receivers and his Quarterback situation is set for a long time. A small upgrade at Tight End and it'll round it out. After that it's a lot of depth maintenance.