XDSFL BREAKDOWN - Say What Again

SAY WHAT AGAIN ROSTER (Current as of 05/01)

My feelings on Pacifico's team are no secret. I felt it was an over achieving team that was the product of an extraordinary set of circumstances all the way to the title. If left unchanged, there's no doubt in my mind that this team would fall right back to reality and in the bottom 4 of this league. With that being said, there are some very strong components that not only produce now but will for many years to come. Matt Ryan posted up top 10 numbers in yards, Touchdowns and overall Fantasy Points. Adrian Peterson & Steven Jackson both put up 180+ Fantasy Points last season. Hakeem Nicks and Julio Jones are 24 & 23 respectively and put up around 150 Fantasy Points last year. The big guns are in place, but there's a severe lack of depth and it shows in the production.

Pacifico has picks 1.10 2.10 3.10 4.10 5.10

Pacifico doesn't have immediate needs so his draft will come down to BPA. It's going to be a tough draft coming from the bottom. Extensive research will be needed to get maximum value out of the 3rd - 5th rounders. They're probably better suited drafting players with 1 or 2 years in the league projected to break out rather than rookies.

PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of value.

Matt Ryan
Adrian Peterson
Steven Jackson
Hakeem Nicks
Julio Jones
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense

There's only a few legitimate QB1's in the league right now and Matt Ryan is one of them. He's posted up 3000 yards in every season he's played in. His Touchdowns/Year has increased all 4 years he's been in the league. He has the major benefit of playing all his home games in a dome (see Peyton Manning & Drew Brees). He also has 2 legitimate WR1's in Roddy White & Julio Jones and a TE1 in Anthony Gonzales. At 26 years old, Ryan has got a good 8 more years of high level production. He should not be moved.

Julio Jones is exactly what everyone expected coming into the league but not exactly what was expected Fantasy wise. He posted up 147 points last season but the number is very deceiving. He had 1 game at 30 points, 1 at 22 and 1 at 20. Further to the point, the 20 point game was in week 17, which means its a wash. With 52 points off 2 weeks, it's obvious the rest of the weeks suffer. On the plus side, he posted up 50+ points across weeks 13 - 16 so he plays well down the stretch. He's got all the tools to be a monster Wide Receiver. He's tall, posts 4/40 speed, gets off the jam well and has insane vertical. His numbers were solid as a rookie. If his 2nd year is anything close he'll be another player that can't be moved.

Nicks is another young monster WR. He's posted up back to back 1000 yard seasons. He had a dip in TD production in 2011 but that'll happen when someone like Victor Cruz comes out of nowhere to scoop TD's. Yardage more than anything is the important factor in WR's though. He's got a great QB throwing to him, he's 24 years old, great vertical, very fast and in a pass heavy offense. He's another player to watch as the offense is re-balanced (watch for David Wilson to burn WR's on targets this year) but he's another core player and shouldn't be moved.

RECOMMENDATIONS
I consider both of Pacifico's top Running Backs a sell high. Peterson is someone whose trade value is at its peak right now. He posted up monster numbers despite missing 1/4 of the season. However, his injury was a torn ACL and he is anything but a finesse Running Back. I anticipate that his workload is about to get a severe drop. Also, it'll be very interesting to see how much he's willing to dig in for extra yards or to break tackles coming off that injury. I figure Pacifico will wait and see. Truth be told I'd likely do the same. However, if his production falls, not only will he not get max value in a trade, his stock will drastically drop. On the other side, Steven Jackson is simply a victim of his own style. Like Peterson he's a grinder. Jackson has posted up at least 1000 Rushing Yards over 7 years. If you watch his footage, those aren't breakaway yards. He's hitting the line and busting through for short gains every week. He'll be turning 29 coming into this season. It's very telling that St. Louis drafted Isaiah Pead in the 2nd round of the draft. The writing is on the wall for Jackson. While Peterson is a wait and see, I would highly recommend moving Steven Jackson to a team looking to make a run.

There's a lot of trash that needs to be cleared off of Pacifico's roster. Christian Ponder, Chad Henne, Kahlil Bell, Kevin Smith, Plaxico Burress and Kyle Rudolph are all worthless in terms of consistent production. Taiwan Jones and Montario Hardesty are both on the cusp of being worthless depending on how spring training goes. Jones had trade value until Goodson was traded to Oakland. Hardesty had value until Cleveland drafted Richardson.

The 10th overall pick should be traded immediately. It has little to no value to Pacifico in this state but could be traded either to move up or just out for a solid RB3/WR3/TE behind Peterson/Jackson or Jones/Nicks. If the pick is retained, I'd suggest getting value at the spot and picking up Coby Fleener. He'll be an immediate upgrade over Rudolph and likely an upgrade over Pettigrew.

FINAL THOUGHTS
Pacifico has a team that over achieved and now could bite him in the ass in terms of the rebuild he was slated to be on last season. I projected this team to finish around 7th last year. At 4th in each round of drafting, a lot of critical holes could have been filled with high potential youth or traded for strong established depth. Picking 10th, it's going to be really tough draft. The Running Back corps desperately needs to be addressed. It's got maybe 1 year left of high level production and then it's going to crash and burn without new blood. I love his Receivers and his Quarterback situation is set for a long time. A small upgrade at Tight End and it'll round it out. After that it's a lot of depth maintenance.