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Friday, May 4, 2012

XDSFL Dynasty League Mock Draft Round 1

Our Dynasty League is entering it's 3rd season and I can tell there's a very strong uptick in terms of players doing research and taking the league seriously. As a result, I've been asked a lot more questions this off season than last. The biggest issue everyone is having is with our upcoming Rookie Draft. Some players place too high or low value on their picks. Some don't know what to do with the pick they've got. I thought it'd be fun to do a mock draft to give everyone an idea of how I see their team. The draft choices I made were based on need more than anything else. You'll notice there's a glaring omission by the time it's over and I welcome any arguments over it.

1.01 - GUCCI GUNNERS
Pick - Trent Richardson
Merwin is in the first year of a large rebuild. Impulsive moves over the course of the last two years have left him in a poor spot in terms of points production. While I think his biggest problem is at Wide Receiver, his choice must be Trent Richardson. If there was any doubt, it was put to rest when Cleveland drafted him and everyone realized he'd be a feature Running Back rather than RBBC. If he ends up being everything people think, he'll prove to be the cornerstone of Merwin's rebuild. He has had Ryan Williams sitting on IR (picked up in the 3rd round last year due to draft being just before the regular season) and will be poised to use him. Jonathan Stewart is waiting to explode as well. Those 3 should make a great foundation of Backs.

1.02 - MEAN MACHINES
Pick - Michael Floyd
This is slotted because Rob has made it clear that's the route he's going and I frankly have no reason not to believe him. Drew Brees and Matt Forte are his only real point producers. Personally I would have traded down to somewhere in the mid 1st and pick up a RB2/WR2. His top Receiver is Steve Smith and he knows that isn't going to last at 32 years old. Rob has Stevie Johnson as well. With Floyd, the 3 should make for a strong starting line up. While I anticipate Rob will draft Justin Blackmon, Floyd is a comparable Receiver who ended up in a far better situation in Arizona than Blackmon in Jacksonville. He'll get a lot of targets with Fitzgerald double teamed, a lot like the Jones/White situation in Atlanta.

1.03 - THE BRADY'S
Pick - Doug Martin
Terry has substantial Running Back issues that need to be addressed ASAP. Prior to a trade for Michael Bush in the off season, his top Running Back last year was Willis McGahee. Considering his age, and the fact the system will no longer be run based with Denver adding Peyton Manning, that point total will substantially drop. Out of all rookie Running Backs, Martin ended up in the best spot to add immediate strong production. If Blount can't hold onto the Football, Martin won't just be leading RBBC, he'll be a rare feature back in the NFL.

1.04 - THE VOYAGERS
Pick - David Wilson
This was the first team I actually had to give thought to. Scott has built a solid team of young talent across all positions. I expect much of the same with his picking up David Wilson. At present, Scott's top point getter is Frank Gore. He's on his last legs and I figure he'll be run until the wheels come off. After that Scott has DeMarco Murray and Roy Helu as his next viable choices. Wilson being drafted to New York was a perfect fit on a couple of levels. He'll get to split (likely 35/65) carries with Bradshaw. He's got great hands in a pass heavy offense. I expect him to produce right off the hop, even more so if Bradshaw's foot continues to act up.

1.05 - THE GUCCI GUNNERS (Acquired from THE ALABAMA TICKS)
Pick - Justin Blackmon
Seems odd to see Blackmon fall to 5th but that'll happen when you're drafted to one of the worst pass offenses in the league. He'll be splitting targets with Laurent Robinson. They have a God awful Quarterback and it's a brand new coaching staff in place. While I think his talent will shine through after Gabbert is replaced, I don't anticipate real production out of Blackmon for a while. Merwin's biggest issue while rebuilding is finding a viable WR2 after Marshall. He should draft the WR BPA and that'd be Blackmon.

1.06 - HIGHLIGHT REEL
Pick - Robert Griffen III
I love my team in every aspect except Quarterback. I have Big Ben and while he's a low end QB1, he's also been destroyed by injuries over the years. I anticipate his fantasy production will start to slow over the next couple of years. I anticipate RGIII will have an immediate impact, even in the awful Washington system. Ben will be my guy for the next couple of years but RGIII hopefully will take the reigns afterwards.

1.07 - P IN THE V
Pick - Kendell Wright
Ben has major issues at Wide Receiver. His top producer was Mike Wallace and then after that, no receiver broke 120 points. If you want to split hairs, Ben does have Rob Gronkowski who made up a ridiculous amount of points week to week. Ben needs a Receiver more than anyone else in the league. I actually have Wright higher than Blackmon on my Wide Receiver rankings based on the system he was drafted into. He'll have an immediate impact in a very young, wide spread and high powered offense. It's a no brainer draft here.

1.08 - THE SEXY LEPRECHAUNS
Pick - Coby Fleener
I've been saying over the course of the first two seasons of our Dynasty League that Scott has by far the best team. It's young and well balanced with a legit QB1, 2 x RB1 and 2 x WR1 at its foundation. If there was one gap I'd fill it's TE. Fleener is looking to be a monster and immediate producer with the Colts. He went to school with Andrew Luck and will end up being his safety net Receiver. With the way the Tight End role is changing, it's like picking up another WR without burning the roster spot.

1.09 - THE GUCCI GUNNERS (acquired from THE COMMISH)
Pick - Alshon Jeffrey
Pre draft I would have placed whichever of Miller/Wilson/Martin ended up at the bottom end of the first round. However, Miller will end up being a Kick Returner for years to come in the Dolphins system so long as Thomas and Bush are splitting carries. As such, it's back to Wide Receiver and Jeffrey is the best fit. Some might make an argument for Stephen Hill or Mohamed Sanu. The former is in an awful passing system. The latter is still in a system trying to figure itself out. If anything I like Sanu over Hill in terms of fantasy production. In any case, Jeffrey has conditioning issues that need to be addressed but he was drafted to an ideal system. He'll spread the field with Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler has a rocket arm. It's a WR handcuff at first look but if the Bears offense clicks then there'll be plenty of points to spread around.

1.10 - SAY WHAT AGAIN
Pick - Isaiah Pead
I project a good amount of options in Pacifico's spot, primarily at Wide Receiver. However, his primary need is at Running Back. With Steven Jackson on his way down and possibly out in the next couple of years, Pead is the natural successor. He's already projected to create a true RBBC and could end up a feature Running Back when Jackson slows down or stalls. It's a natural fit for Pacifico. Letting Pead slip out of the first round would be a big mistake.

So it should be obvious by now that I don't have Andrew Luck being drafted in the first round of our Rookie Draft. Some people might think I'm crazy but as I said at the start, I did this mock draft based on need. The only people I saw with a need for Luck were Terry and Merwin. Terry seems like a great fit with Brady only having three more years but passing on a Running Back in the first round basically kills any chance he'll get one at all by the time his 13th pick rolls around. It's a glaring problem on his team that needs to be addressed. Merwin could use Luck immediately, even with both Mannings on his roster. However, he has needs at RB & WR and they should be addressed first. If anyone else takes him, they'll be giving up a likely immediate producer for one of their needs over carrying a back up Quarterback for years.

2 comments:

  1. i dont think you are crazy, just incorrect. People (i will not name names....Dannon) will draft luck if hes still on the board. I think youll be surprised where you see luck go.

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  2. An argument could be made that Danon is the last person in our entire league who should be drafting Luck. I've spoken with him about it and the only upside is to keep someone else from getting him. He'd be passing on at least one need at Tight End at at least shoring up either RB/WR in a very depth heavy class.

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