THE VOYAGERS ROSTER (Current as of 03/29)
ANALYSIS
If I were to pick one guy that studies the game as much or more than myself it's Scott. I knew listening to him going into our Start Up Draft that he was going to be someone to watch as the years pass. Looking at his team, it's obvious that he makes the big differentiation between Dynasty and ReDraft that some other owners still haven't grasped. He keeps his team very young for the most part. The few aging players on his team were acquired when he looked like he wanted to make a run last year. It obviously didn't pan out but I don't blame him for giving it a real shot. He's in a strong position to not only move forward in season 3 but do it almost entirely through youth. A friend of mine tells me regularly that "if you can't envision a player on your team in 3 years, they shouldn't be on your team."
Scott has picks 1.04 2.04 3.04 4.04 5.04
Scott is the only person in our league that I have absolutely no idea where he'll draft. Under that premise, he'd be placed in a BPA situation. He was willing to shop his 1st pick until just recently and then pulled it. Rumour has it that he's shifted focus to adding an additional 1st round pick or high 2nd coming into the draft. Considering his style of management, that doesn't surprise me in the least.
PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of quality
Matthew Stafford
DeMarco Murray
Kenny Britt
Larry Fitzgerald
Scott's team has depth but not overflowing with superstars. I love his receiving corps at the present time. Fitzgerald is a fantasy machine. If he had a better QB, I'd have placed him in the same tier at Calvin Johnson. I had my doubts when Kevin Kolb came into the Cardinals system but Fitz hasn't lost a step. Scott acquired Kenny Britt from myself in a big trade earlier in the off season. Britt has had his share of issues both on and off field. However, when he's playing he's one of the most ridiculous players I've ever seen. It's very telling Scott was willing to move a RB1 to acquire a player who hasn't played a full season. However, if you look at Britt's production it's no surprise why he wanted him. Dez Bryant is a great WR2 for a 3rd receiver every week. I don't believe him to be the WR1 that others do. He hasn't broken 1000 yards or 10 TD's despite being the Cowboys apparent biggest weapon. I think his name value is worth more than his fantasy production.
Scott's Running Back situation isn't in bad shape but definitely needs re-tooling. The loss of Ryan Matthews means no RB1 on his roster. DeMarco Murray has the tools to be the next big thing in Dallas but he hasn't had a season without injury since high school (that's not a joke). If that's the case, he'll have a gaping hole in RB production sometime this year. Benson and Gore both have RB2 numbers but one is unemployed and the other is on his last legs. I would have liked Helu to step up as a fantasy RB2 but Royster stole some of his thunder at the end of the season and Washington looks poised to go through the air with RGIII about to be drafted.
I love Scott's Quarterback situation. Stafford is a monster as long as he's healthy. Last year was his first healthy year and he put up numbers just shy of Drew Brees territory both in yards and touchdowns while 10 years his junior. He should be a staple on Scott's team for years to come. Michael Vick has come back down to Earth after taking off. His passing numbers are actually QB2/QB3 territory. Where he excelled was his rushing yards in 2010. Note though, he had 9 rushing TD's in 2010 and 1 in 2011. Still, as a flex QB he's ideal for Scott's team.
RECOMMENDATIONS
As I said earlier, Scott needs to address his Running Back roster more than anything else. His QB & WR spots are good to go not only this year but for years to come. He'd do well to draft Lamar Miller or David Wilson 4th overall. However, I'd still look to trade down and pick up a utility back or package for a legit low RB1/high RB2. There are quite a few owners with the depth to spare and looking to move up in the draft for the right price.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Despite a poor finish last year, Scott's got the youth and talent on his roster to make legit runs for years to come. Just a small amount of adjustments is all that's left before sitting back to watch while everyone else scrambles to make moves yearly.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Thursday, March 29, 2012
XDSFL Breakdown - Mr. Brady
MR. BRADY ROSTER (Current as of 03/29)
ANALYSIS
Every time I see that Terry came 8th in our league I shake my head in disbelief. I like Terry's team in many ways. At the start of season 2, I figured him to be a contender for a title run. A lot can change in a year. His team was plagued by injuries at the midway point. The loss of Andre Johnson can not be overstated enough. He represents an average of 12 points per game lost after week 4. To put that in perspective, Terry lost 3 games by 12 or less. That's the difference between 8th and 3rd in a tight race last year. His team also suffered from a severe lack of patience. Mendenhall was moved for 1.09 and DeMarco Murray was moved for... Greg Little? Despite a couple of key injuries and odd moves, Terry's in a prime position to be right back in the thick of things coming into the 3rd season.
Terry has picks 1.03 2.03 3.03 4.03 5.03
I suspect Terry's first round pick will be highly contingent on Rob's pick more than anything else. I do like that he's high throughout the draft despite having a solid team. Even 3.03 should yield a strong player with some research put in. The draft class is deep and players shouldn't be disregarded past the 2nd round.
PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of quality
Tom Brady
Calvin Johnson
Isaac Redman
Stevan Ridley
Vernon Davis
Jason Hanson
Greg Little
Chicago Bears Defense
There are a few players in the league that I consider 100% immovable. The best way I look at those players would be someone would have to give up so much to get them that they're not only stupid, they'd outright cripple their team to give the right value. Calvin Johnson is the only Wide Receiver I'd place in that category. He's 26 years old and has a young QB1 throwing to him. He's going to put up 200 points every year (barring injury) for the next 5 years.
When I look at Tom Brady, there's a part of me that says "sell high" and there's part that says "run him into retirement." If he were even a year younger (he's 34) it would be outright impossible to consider trading. At this stage, he's far too important to move and there's enough time over the next 3 years to draft a great Quarterback or trade for another QB1. Only Rodgers and Brees are in his league right now and Brady is a cornerstone of Terry's team.
Both Redman and Ridley are wait and see players with huge upside. Redzone Redman is going to get a big uptick in fantasy value this year. More so if Mendenhall is shelved longer than initially expected. The move of Green-Ellis to the Bengals has left a dog fight over the starting job in New England. I like Ridley over Vereen by a wide margin. I don't consider Woodhead an issue as he's used in any number of wacky packages not traditional for a larger Back.
I'm hopeful Little pans out considering the price paid for him. If Cleveland upgrades at Quarterback, Little should get an immediate increase in value. It's a lot of what ifs though.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Terry's Running Back situation is a disaster. His best RB is Michael Bush and he'll be 28 years old by the time the NFL season starts. Willis McGahee is about to take an insane tumble in value as the entire Broncos offense is going to be re-tooled for Peyton Manning. He's also 30 years old. I would have tried to sell him high midway through the season to be honest. LaGarrette Blount is due for an upswing. However, if Trent Richardson is drafted 5th then Blount is dead in the water. Terry MUST draft a Running Back with 1.03 or trade down for a pick plus a Running Back. It's a small window because I wouldn't trade down lower than 1.07 to ensure getting a tier 1 rookie RB.
I'd also look to acquire a WR2 sooner rather than later. Andre Johnson is a great WR but when you fall down without being touched, that isn't something you just ignore. At 30 years old he has great trade value to contenders but holding him longer than another year is likely a poor decision both in the short term and definitely the long term.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Terry's only a couple of adjustments away from being right back on top of things. Once Running Back is addressed, I have no doubts his team will be smacking people up on the regular again.
ANALYSIS
Every time I see that Terry came 8th in our league I shake my head in disbelief. I like Terry's team in many ways. At the start of season 2, I figured him to be a contender for a title run. A lot can change in a year. His team was plagued by injuries at the midway point. The loss of Andre Johnson can not be overstated enough. He represents an average of 12 points per game lost after week 4. To put that in perspective, Terry lost 3 games by 12 or less. That's the difference between 8th and 3rd in a tight race last year. His team also suffered from a severe lack of patience. Mendenhall was moved for 1.09 and DeMarco Murray was moved for... Greg Little? Despite a couple of key injuries and odd moves, Terry's in a prime position to be right back in the thick of things coming into the 3rd season.
Terry has picks 1.03 2.03 3.03 4.03 5.03
I suspect Terry's first round pick will be highly contingent on Rob's pick more than anything else. I do like that he's high throughout the draft despite having a solid team. Even 3.03 should yield a strong player with some research put in. The draft class is deep and players shouldn't be disregarded past the 2nd round.
PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of quality
Tom Brady
Calvin Johnson
Isaac Redman
Stevan Ridley
Vernon Davis
Jason Hanson
Greg Little
Chicago Bears Defense
There are a few players in the league that I consider 100% immovable. The best way I look at those players would be someone would have to give up so much to get them that they're not only stupid, they'd outright cripple their team to give the right value. Calvin Johnson is the only Wide Receiver I'd place in that category. He's 26 years old and has a young QB1 throwing to him. He's going to put up 200 points every year (barring injury) for the next 5 years.
When I look at Tom Brady, there's a part of me that says "sell high" and there's part that says "run him into retirement." If he were even a year younger (he's 34) it would be outright impossible to consider trading. At this stage, he's far too important to move and there's enough time over the next 3 years to draft a great Quarterback or trade for another QB1. Only Rodgers and Brees are in his league right now and Brady is a cornerstone of Terry's team.
Both Redman and Ridley are wait and see players with huge upside. Redzone Redman is going to get a big uptick in fantasy value this year. More so if Mendenhall is shelved longer than initially expected. The move of Green-Ellis to the Bengals has left a dog fight over the starting job in New England. I like Ridley over Vereen by a wide margin. I don't consider Woodhead an issue as he's used in any number of wacky packages not traditional for a larger Back.
I'm hopeful Little pans out considering the price paid for him. If Cleveland upgrades at Quarterback, Little should get an immediate increase in value. It's a lot of what ifs though.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Terry's Running Back situation is a disaster. His best RB is Michael Bush and he'll be 28 years old by the time the NFL season starts. Willis McGahee is about to take an insane tumble in value as the entire Broncos offense is going to be re-tooled for Peyton Manning. He's also 30 years old. I would have tried to sell him high midway through the season to be honest. LaGarrette Blount is due for an upswing. However, if Trent Richardson is drafted 5th then Blount is dead in the water. Terry MUST draft a Running Back with 1.03 or trade down for a pick plus a Running Back. It's a small window because I wouldn't trade down lower than 1.07 to ensure getting a tier 1 rookie RB.
I'd also look to acquire a WR2 sooner rather than later. Andre Johnson is a great WR but when you fall down without being touched, that isn't something you just ignore. At 30 years old he has great trade value to contenders but holding him longer than another year is likely a poor decision both in the short term and definitely the long term.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Terry's only a couple of adjustments away from being right back on top of things. Once Running Back is addressed, I have no doubts his team will be smacking people up on the regular again.
Tuesday, March 27, 2012
XDSFL Breakdown - Mean Machines
THE MEAN MACHINES ROSTER (Current as of 03/27)
ANALYSIS
Rob has placed bottom 2 in back to back years. This stems from a poor Start Up Draft more than anything else. The offense is polarized such that only Drew Brees and Matt Forte have put up consistent elite production. The amazing revival of Steve Smith at age 32 due to the arrival of Cam Newton has been a strong plus for Rob's team as well. There are a few components that will yield strong results in the future such as Stevie Johnson and Mark Ingram but honestly, the rest is a ragtag bunch of players that are grossly under-performing.
Rob has picks 1.02 2.02 3.02 4.02 5.02
Rob has made it abundantly clear he's not looking to move his 1st round pick. I anticipate he'll draft Justin Blackmon 2nd overall. While I think it's a great idea to grab the best WR for a weak team, this draft is so deep this year that the pick could serve a multi faceted purpose. I'll get into that later on in the article.
PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of quality.
Sam Bradford
Matt Forte
Mark Ingram
Steve Johnson
Alex Henery
It's a pretty short list. I'll address the obvious Drew Brees question in the next section. Matt Forte CAN NOT be moved. Let's get this out of the way. He will be back in Chicago. He'll also have an opportunity to get even better as there are more weapons in Chicago and defenses won't be as inclined to stack the box knowing 50% or more of the offense is going through Forte. He's coming off surgery but at 26 years old, he's in his prime and will be a monster for a few more years. Steve Johnson is the rising Buffalo Bills WR1 and is the foundation of Rob's WR Corps. Since starting in 2010, he's put up back to back 1000 yard seasons. He had a drop off in TD's this year but that'll happen when you're up against the top corner in the league 2x a year and being double teamed. Both guys will give Rob at least 3 years more top level production short of being injured and he shouldn't entertain offers for either of them.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Rob needs to sell Drew Brees right now. To the right owner, Brees could yield a combination of both draft picks and strong players if that owner has depth to give. A year ago, I tried to ship an RB2, WR1, TE1 and this year's 1st round pick to Rob for Brees and was turned down. Hindsight dictates I was overpaying when I already had a low QB1/high QB2 in Big Ben but that's irrelevant now. The bottom line is that Rob has a major bargaining chip to work with and should be active in moving Brees. I understand it's hard to give up a guy coming off 5000+ yards and 46 TD's. However, when you can draft an amazing QB, and still get 3 or 4 major pieces in return, you not only recover the points but increase the overall amount.
1.02 should be traded down. There are a host of players in our league that would like to trade up and would give up a package to do it. This is exactly what Rob needs. If he can trade 1.02 down and pick up 1.04 - 1.07 he will get a comparable WR in Kendell Wright or Michael Floyd and still get another player (at the very least) in the RB2/WR2 range. That's win/win for a team in rebuild.
The Carolina Handcuff needs to be broken. Steve Smith is an interesting player. If I was in Rob's shoes I'd look to sell high to a team looking to make a title run. Unlike Brees though, I wouldn't hold it against Rob to hold onto Smith until his wheels come off. Smith isn't a big TD guy but he puts up WR1 yardage and that's a very big deal. I'd look to move DeAngelo Williams to a team lacking in Running Backs. His ceiling is RB2 but more like RB3 nowadays. He'll likely get an underwhelming response in player trade value but he should yield a great offer for someone looking to move picks.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Rob's team is by far in the worst shape out of everyone at this point in time. The team is in need of what I'd consider 2 years of rebuild before it can playoff contend, never mind title contend. There are a few really strong pieces in its foundation but lots of work needs to be done. He's got to let go of the 1 or 2 giant numbers and realize consistent strong numbers across the board will yield far more wins.
ANALYSIS
Rob has placed bottom 2 in back to back years. This stems from a poor Start Up Draft more than anything else. The offense is polarized such that only Drew Brees and Matt Forte have put up consistent elite production. The amazing revival of Steve Smith at age 32 due to the arrival of Cam Newton has been a strong plus for Rob's team as well. There are a few components that will yield strong results in the future such as Stevie Johnson and Mark Ingram but honestly, the rest is a ragtag bunch of players that are grossly under-performing.
Rob has picks 1.02 2.02 3.02 4.02 5.02
Rob has made it abundantly clear he's not looking to move his 1st round pick. I anticipate he'll draft Justin Blackmon 2nd overall. While I think it's a great idea to grab the best WR for a weak team, this draft is so deep this year that the pick could serve a multi faceted purpose. I'll get into that later on in the article.
PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of quality.
Sam Bradford
Matt Forte
Mark Ingram
Steve Johnson
Alex Henery
It's a pretty short list. I'll address the obvious Drew Brees question in the next section. Matt Forte CAN NOT be moved. Let's get this out of the way. He will be back in Chicago. He'll also have an opportunity to get even better as there are more weapons in Chicago and defenses won't be as inclined to stack the box knowing 50% or more of the offense is going through Forte. He's coming off surgery but at 26 years old, he's in his prime and will be a monster for a few more years. Steve Johnson is the rising Buffalo Bills WR1 and is the foundation of Rob's WR Corps. Since starting in 2010, he's put up back to back 1000 yard seasons. He had a drop off in TD's this year but that'll happen when you're up against the top corner in the league 2x a year and being double teamed. Both guys will give Rob at least 3 years more top level production short of being injured and he shouldn't entertain offers for either of them.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Rob needs to sell Drew Brees right now. To the right owner, Brees could yield a combination of both draft picks and strong players if that owner has depth to give. A year ago, I tried to ship an RB2, WR1, TE1 and this year's 1st round pick to Rob for Brees and was turned down. Hindsight dictates I was overpaying when I already had a low QB1/high QB2 in Big Ben but that's irrelevant now. The bottom line is that Rob has a major bargaining chip to work with and should be active in moving Brees. I understand it's hard to give up a guy coming off 5000+ yards and 46 TD's. However, when you can draft an amazing QB, and still get 3 or 4 major pieces in return, you not only recover the points but increase the overall amount.
1.02 should be traded down. There are a host of players in our league that would like to trade up and would give up a package to do it. This is exactly what Rob needs. If he can trade 1.02 down and pick up 1.04 - 1.07 he will get a comparable WR in Kendell Wright or Michael Floyd and still get another player (at the very least) in the RB2/WR2 range. That's win/win for a team in rebuild.
The Carolina Handcuff needs to be broken. Steve Smith is an interesting player. If I was in Rob's shoes I'd look to sell high to a team looking to make a title run. Unlike Brees though, I wouldn't hold it against Rob to hold onto Smith until his wheels come off. Smith isn't a big TD guy but he puts up WR1 yardage and that's a very big deal. I'd look to move DeAngelo Williams to a team lacking in Running Backs. His ceiling is RB2 but more like RB3 nowadays. He'll likely get an underwhelming response in player trade value but he should yield a great offer for someone looking to move picks.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Rob's team is by far in the worst shape out of everyone at this point in time. The team is in need of what I'd consider 2 years of rebuild before it can playoff contend, never mind title contend. There are a few really strong pieces in its foundation but lots of work needs to be done. He's got to let go of the 1 or 2 giant numbers and realize consistent strong numbers across the board will yield far more wins.
XDSFL Breakdown - Gucci Gunners
I haven't found much motivation to write on my primary blog lately. There isn't much that's caught my interest. However, I have been head deep in Fantasy Football of late. The NFL Draft is coming and then the league rookie draft will come sometime afterwards. With upcoming events, the league seems to be in full swing in terms of trades/adds/drop/etc. As a result, I've had a lot of time to look at every time in order to find ways to improve my own. Now that I consider my own team "complete" outside of my draft pick, I thought I'd put down thoughts on everyone else's team over the course of the next month. Some of it will be harsh and some of it will be praise. I welcome thoughts/discussion/criticism/etc either in the comments below or on the league page. I'll be doing these in order of how people finished the year so Merwin is first.
THE GUCCI GUNNERS ROSTER (Current as of 03/27)
ANALYSIS
Merwin had a tough year last year. The biggest issue was his inability to sit on any players who weren't actively producing over a short span of time. As a result, Merwin's team has seen players such as Frank Gore, Fred Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Victor Cruz and Chris Johnson all come and go over the last eight months. While last year was difficult, some major changes in the way Merwin approaches the game has seen some strong strides forward. Merwin is in a great position to rebuild his team in a short amount of time due to his strong placement in the upcoming rookie draft.
Merwin has picks 1.01 1.05 1.09 2.01 2.06
I'm not going to get into his picks past the 2nd round. At the present time his roster is full and he simply can't afford to take on any players with those picks. As for his first 5 picks, he'll be able to place his team into a much stronger and younger position after this draft. Aside from Trent Richardson, Merwin will be in a strong position to draft another Running Back and a high level Wide Receiver before the first round is completed. His two second round acquisitions won't yield immediate results unless some players fall further than anticipated but they will pan out in a year or two. I like his outlook going into the 2013 NFL Season.
PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player of quality.
Eli Manning
Jonathan Stewart
Beanie Wells
Ryan Williams
Brandon Marshall
Jeremy Maclin
Emmanuel Sanders
Fred Davis
Simply put, Jonathan Stewart is on the verge of an explosion within the next year. He'll either become the franchise back in Carolina, be traded before the season starts or hit Free Agency at the end of the season. In all situations, he will be one of Merwin's main Running Backs and MUST NOT be moved.
Brandon Marshall is being reunited with Jay Cutler, the quarterback that gave him his best season. Looking past that, Marshall hasn't had a season below 1000 yards since his rookie season. He even managed to hold onto that number in an awful Miami offense with 3 different QB's over 2 years. He's a stud WR1 and will only see increased production under a far better system than both Miami & Denver. Like Stewart, Marshall is a foundation player and can not be moved.
RECOMMENDATIONS
At this point Merwin is almost in the best position he can be without seeing where the NFL Rookie Draft is at. I would recommend looking into a solid Wide Receiver but not someone that shouldn't cost more than a 2nd round pick. Players like Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Darrius Heyward-Bay, Josh Morgan all have upside but their current owners would have to be nuts to think they're worth more than a 2nd at this point. While I wouldn't dump anyone right now, Merwin will have to look into dumping or trading players coming into our rookie draft. He's carrying a full 20 players + 2 IR spots while having 8 draft picks. Even with the league expanding to 25 total slots, that's bad drafting math. He's got some veterans on his team that players looking to make a run at the title this year could use. I'd look to move Peyton Manning, & Antonio Gates. Both of them will have very strong production in the short term and could be a great piece to a few other owners teams who have high hopes for a title win. If they can't be moved at solid trade value, I'd recommend running them until the wheels fall off.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Merwin has lots of work to do but I like his outlook going into the upcoming season. His team is young with a ton of upside. While I don't think he's a contender this season, he's only a couple of moves away from being not just a monster but one built where he doesn't have to make any major moves for years to come.
THE GUCCI GUNNERS ROSTER (Current as of 03/27)
ANALYSIS
Merwin had a tough year last year. The biggest issue was his inability to sit on any players who weren't actively producing over a short span of time. As a result, Merwin's team has seen players such as Frank Gore, Fred Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Victor Cruz and Chris Johnson all come and go over the last eight months. While last year was difficult, some major changes in the way Merwin approaches the game has seen some strong strides forward. Merwin is in a great position to rebuild his team in a short amount of time due to his strong placement in the upcoming rookie draft.
Merwin has picks 1.01 1.05 1.09 2.01 2.06
I'm not going to get into his picks past the 2nd round. At the present time his roster is full and he simply can't afford to take on any players with those picks. As for his first 5 picks, he'll be able to place his team into a much stronger and younger position after this draft. Aside from Trent Richardson, Merwin will be in a strong position to draft another Running Back and a high level Wide Receiver before the first round is completed. His two second round acquisitions won't yield immediate results unless some players fall further than anticipated but they will pan out in a year or two. I like his outlook going into the 2013 NFL Season.
PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player of quality.
Eli Manning
Jonathan Stewart
Beanie Wells
Ryan Williams
Brandon Marshall
Jeremy Maclin
Emmanuel Sanders
Fred Davis
Simply put, Jonathan Stewart is on the verge of an explosion within the next year. He'll either become the franchise back in Carolina, be traded before the season starts or hit Free Agency at the end of the season. In all situations, he will be one of Merwin's main Running Backs and MUST NOT be moved.
Brandon Marshall is being reunited with Jay Cutler, the quarterback that gave him his best season. Looking past that, Marshall hasn't had a season below 1000 yards since his rookie season. He even managed to hold onto that number in an awful Miami offense with 3 different QB's over 2 years. He's a stud WR1 and will only see increased production under a far better system than both Miami & Denver. Like Stewart, Marshall is a foundation player and can not be moved.
RECOMMENDATIONS
At this point Merwin is almost in the best position he can be without seeing where the NFL Rookie Draft is at. I would recommend looking into a solid Wide Receiver but not someone that shouldn't cost more than a 2nd round pick. Players like Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Darrius Heyward-Bay, Josh Morgan all have upside but their current owners would have to be nuts to think they're worth more than a 2nd at this point. While I wouldn't dump anyone right now, Merwin will have to look into dumping or trading players coming into our rookie draft. He's carrying a full 20 players + 2 IR spots while having 8 draft picks. Even with the league expanding to 25 total slots, that's bad drafting math. He's got some veterans on his team that players looking to make a run at the title this year could use. I'd look to move Peyton Manning, & Antonio Gates. Both of them will have very strong production in the short term and could be a great piece to a few other owners teams who have high hopes for a title win. If they can't be moved at solid trade value, I'd recommend running them until the wheels fall off.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Merwin has lots of work to do but I like his outlook going into the upcoming season. His team is young with a ton of upside. While I don't think he's a contender this season, he's only a couple of moves away from being not just a monster but one built where he doesn't have to make any major moves for years to come.
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Live & Learn
One of the first lessons that Vanny tried to impart on me in the Dynasty off season was to not making any moves between the trade deadline and the NFL Draft. There's no true gauge of talent as it's all a bunch of speculative mumbo jumbo with picks flying everywhere. I didn't take his advice and frankly (like the majority of times when I pass on good advice) it's come to bite me hard in the ass.
Chris Johnson traded away for Victor Cruz
From a 1 for 1 perspective, I think I came out ahead on this deal. The deal itself isn't a problem, it's the domino effect it created for my team. My team prior to that trade is as follows:
20 MAN ROSTER + 2 IR NON PPR
QB - Roethlisberger, Sanchez
RB - Foster, Johnson, F-Jax, Bush, Hunter, Royster
WR - Welker, Marshall, V-Jax, D-Jax, Williams (TB), Britt, Brown
TE - Graham, Finley, Celek
K - Rackers
DEF - Texans
Picks - 1.06 2.06 3.06 3.07
A couple of factors came into play when I made the initial trade. The biggest being I was helping one of the other guys in the league rebuild his team. He's the one that sent Cruz my way. If I'd taken more than 2 seconds I'd have blown off the deal from anyone else because I'd have looked at my roster, saw the depth at WR and realize that while it's an upgrade, the addition at WR wasn't needed as much as the depth at RB. I wanted to get an RB2 that would be in the same calibre as Johnson if not Johnson himself.
Britt + Williams + 2.06 traded away for Matthews
The current state of Peyton Manning sweepstakes makes both this deal and the CJ2K deal look far worse. Manning's addition to the Titans will instantly bump up all of their primary offensive weapons. I'd been holding onto Britt all of last year waiting to play him this year. However, the CJ2K domino dropped and I felt compelled to replace him. I don't consider Williams move a consequence either way. I've spent more than my fair share thinking that I blew it on the 2nd round pick though. My original offer involved this but moving up to 1.04 from 1.06 and it was declined. I should have stuck to my guns. The upgrade would have made it worthwhile.
Michael Bush traded away for 1.09
I have no issues with this move. I planned on moving him regardless of any prior changes. The Back depth in the early rounds this year is fantastic and he'll be replaced younger.
Antonio Brown + 1.06 + 1.09 for Chris Johnson (Pending)
This offer will be declined most likely within the next 24 hours. It looked to be locked up and then the trade situation was posed to DLF and the masses shit on it. Personally I thought I was giving the other owner too much. However, Manning is again messing with the entire situation and CJ2K's potential value. I was tempted to revoke the trade but will let it play out. If accepted I'll be done with all moves going into the next season. If declined, it'll shift my focus to draft very smart.
20 MAN ROSTER + 2 IR NON PPR CURRENT TEAM
QB - Roethlisberger, Sanchez
RB - Foster, Matthews, F-Jax, Hunter, Moreno, Royster
WR - Welker, Marshall, Cruz, Brown, V-Jax, D-Jax, Roberts, Royal
TE - Graham, Finley, Celek
K - Rackers
DEF - Texans, Bills
Picks - 1.06 1.09 3.06 3.07
In the end, I'm aware I came out losing in many ways based on one impulsive move with someone I frankly shouldn't be helping in the first place. Sometimes your friendship gets in the way of competitive spirit. Time and temperament would have yielded smarter decision making both in the initial transaction and subsequent moves to compensate.
Live and learn.
Don't doubt Vanny.
Chris Johnson traded away for Victor Cruz
From a 1 for 1 perspective, I think I came out ahead on this deal. The deal itself isn't a problem, it's the domino effect it created for my team. My team prior to that trade is as follows:
20 MAN ROSTER + 2 IR NON PPR
QB - Roethlisberger, Sanchez
RB - Foster, Johnson, F-Jax, Bush, Hunter, Royster
WR - Welker, Marshall, V-Jax, D-Jax, Williams (TB), Britt, Brown
TE - Graham, Finley, Celek
K - Rackers
DEF - Texans
Picks - 1.06 2.06 3.06 3.07
A couple of factors came into play when I made the initial trade. The biggest being I was helping one of the other guys in the league rebuild his team. He's the one that sent Cruz my way. If I'd taken more than 2 seconds I'd have blown off the deal from anyone else because I'd have looked at my roster, saw the depth at WR and realize that while it's an upgrade, the addition at WR wasn't needed as much as the depth at RB. I wanted to get an RB2 that would be in the same calibre as Johnson if not Johnson himself.
Britt + Williams + 2.06 traded away for Matthews
The current state of Peyton Manning sweepstakes makes both this deal and the CJ2K deal look far worse. Manning's addition to the Titans will instantly bump up all of their primary offensive weapons. I'd been holding onto Britt all of last year waiting to play him this year. However, the CJ2K domino dropped and I felt compelled to replace him. I don't consider Williams move a consequence either way. I've spent more than my fair share thinking that I blew it on the 2nd round pick though. My original offer involved this but moving up to 1.04 from 1.06 and it was declined. I should have stuck to my guns. The upgrade would have made it worthwhile.
Michael Bush traded away for 1.09
I have no issues with this move. I planned on moving him regardless of any prior changes. The Back depth in the early rounds this year is fantastic and he'll be replaced younger.
Antonio Brown + 1.06 + 1.09 for Chris Johnson (Pending)
This offer will be declined most likely within the next 24 hours. It looked to be locked up and then the trade situation was posed to DLF and the masses shit on it. Personally I thought I was giving the other owner too much. However, Manning is again messing with the entire situation and CJ2K's potential value. I was tempted to revoke the trade but will let it play out. If accepted I'll be done with all moves going into the next season. If declined, it'll shift my focus to draft very smart.
20 MAN ROSTER + 2 IR NON PPR CURRENT TEAM
QB - Roethlisberger, Sanchez
RB - Foster, Matthews, F-Jax, Hunter, Moreno, Royster
WR - Welker, Marshall, Cruz, Brown, V-Jax, D-Jax, Roberts, Royal
TE - Graham, Finley, Celek
K - Rackers
DEF - Texans, Bills
Picks - 1.06 1.09 3.06 3.07
In the end, I'm aware I came out losing in many ways based on one impulsive move with someone I frankly shouldn't be helping in the first place. Sometimes your friendship gets in the way of competitive spirit. Time and temperament would have yielded smarter decision making both in the initial transaction and subsequent moves to compensate.
Live and learn.
Don't doubt Vanny.
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