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Tuesday, March 27, 2012

XDSFL Breakdown - Gucci Gunners

I haven't found much motivation to write on my primary blog lately. There isn't much that's caught my interest. However, I have been head deep in Fantasy Football of late. The NFL Draft is coming and then the league rookie draft will come sometime afterwards. With upcoming events, the league seems to be in full swing in terms of trades/adds/drop/etc. As a result, I've had a lot of time to look at every time in order to find ways to improve my own. Now that I consider my own team "complete" outside of my draft pick, I thought I'd put down thoughts on everyone else's team over the course of the next month. Some of it will be harsh and some of it will be praise. I welcome thoughts/discussion/criticism/etc either in the comments below or on the league page. I'll be doing these in order of how people finished the year so Merwin is first.

THE GUCCI GUNNERS ROSTER (Current as of 03/27)

ANALYSIS
Merwin had a tough year last year. The biggest issue was his inability to sit on any players who weren't actively producing over a short span of time. As a result, Merwin's team has seen players such as Frank Gore, Fred Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Victor Cruz and Chris Johnson all come and go over the last eight months. While last year was difficult, some major changes in the way Merwin approaches the game has seen some strong strides forward. Merwin is in a great position to rebuild his team in a short amount of time due to his strong placement in the upcoming rookie draft.

Merwin has picks 1.01 1.05 1.09 2.01 2.06

I'm not going to get into his picks past the 2nd round. At the present time his roster is full and he simply can't afford to take on any players with those picks. As for his first 5 picks, he'll be able to place his team into a much stronger and younger position after this draft. Aside from Trent Richardson, Merwin will be in a strong position to draft another Running Back and a high level Wide Receiver before the first round is completed. His two second round acquisitions won't yield immediate results unless some players fall further than anticipated but they will pan out in a year or two. I like his outlook going into the 2013 NFL Season.

PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player of quality.

Eli Manning
Jonathan Stewart
Beanie Wells
Ryan Williams
Brandon Marshall
Jeremy Maclin
Emmanuel Sanders
Fred Davis

Simply put, Jonathan Stewart is on the verge of an explosion within the next year. He'll either become the franchise back in Carolina, be traded before the season starts or hit Free Agency at the end of the season. In all situations, he will be one of Merwin's main Running Backs and MUST NOT be moved.

Brandon Marshall is being reunited with Jay Cutler, the quarterback that gave him his best season. Looking past that, Marshall hasn't had a season below 1000 yards since his rookie season. He even managed to hold onto that number in an awful Miami offense with 3 different QB's over 2 years. He's a stud WR1 and will only see increased production under a far better system than both Miami & Denver. Like Stewart, Marshall is a foundation player and can not be moved.

RECOMMENDATIONS
At this point Merwin is almost in the best position he can be without seeing where the NFL Rookie Draft is at. I would recommend looking into a solid Wide Receiver but not someone that shouldn't cost more than a 2nd round pick. Players like Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Darrius Heyward-Bay, Josh Morgan all have upside but their current owners would have to be nuts to think they're worth more than a 2nd at this point. While I wouldn't dump anyone right now, Merwin will have to look into dumping or trading players coming into our rookie draft. He's carrying a full 20 players + 2 IR spots while having 8 draft picks. Even with the league expanding to 25 total slots, that's bad drafting math. He's got some veterans on his team that players looking to make a run at the title this year could use. I'd look to move Peyton Manning, & Antonio Gates. Both of them will have very strong production in the short term and could be a great piece to a few other owners teams who have high hopes for a title win. If they can't be moved at solid trade value, I'd recommend running them until the wheels fall off.

FINAL THOUGHTS
Merwin has lots of work to do but I like his outlook going into the upcoming season. His team is young with a ton of upside. While I don't think he's a contender this season, he's only a couple of moves away from being not just a monster but one built where he doesn't have to make any major moves for years to come.

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