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Monday, April 2, 2012

XDSFL Breakdown - The Alabama Ticks

THE ALABAMA TICKS ROSTER (Current as of 04/02)

ANALYSIS
Eric has a team that I believe epitomizes a ReDraft team in a Dynasty league. It's got a few heavy hitters but the rest of the pieces aren't really of any consequence. Typical fantasy logic is to build a young consistent team across the board so you can overcome shortcomings. This especially holds true in the latter part of the year when your older heavy hitters start feeling the effects of the season more and more. That being said, there were two parts of his team last year that absolutely shocked me. Cam Newton came into the NFL and destroyed every team he faced. When Eric drafted Newton last year I literally laughed at the choice. There wouldn't have been a chance in hell I draft him that high. Pretty sure he's the only one laughing now. Newton will be a Dynasty stud and a staple of Eric's team for the next decade. There was also Darren Sproles, who thrived in a new offensive system after apparently being stifled in San Diego. Those two combined for 620 points alone last year. That's seriously polarized production.

Eric has picks 2.05 3.05 5.05

It's concerning to see that Eric only has 3 players 25 and younger and that he's missing his 1st round pick (sent to Merwin with Ryan Grant for Dwayne Bowe). The team is built to win now but considering the age of the team and no top young talent coming in, the rebuild after this year or possibly next will be ridiculously extensive.

PLAYER ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of quality

Cameron Newton
Darren McFadden
Darren Sproles
Dwayne Bowe
Jason Witten
David Akers
San Francisco Defense


As I touched on earlier, Cam Newton must never be moved off Eric's roster. All the tools that he had in college that most people thought wouldn't translate to the pro level did just that. It's kind of sick when your QB is a TD vulture for RB's but Newton rushed for 14 touchdowns last year. His passing numbers are QB2 level but if he continues to rush in that 600 - 700 range it will more than make up for it. There are RB2's that would kill for that kind of production.

McFadden is one of those guys where if I was his owner I'd be giving him 1 more year to make a real decision about his future. When he's healthy, he's one of the best RB's in the entire league. The problem is that he's almost never healthy and it's been established he's a very slow healer. His one true upside is that he's only 24 years old and has time to string a set of seasons together. At present he's far too high a producer to move but if he goes down again for any length of time that should be a clear sign to sell off. He'd probably fetch great value in terms of future picks.

Not only was David Akers the best kicker in the league last year, he outproduced the next closest kickers by 30 points. His 8 missed FG's on 52 attempts is a little high but considering the nature of SF's offense, that's to be expected. That team simply doesn't take it to the house as much as other top level teams. Kickers seem to have an indefinite lifespan in the NFL (I'm convinced 40 years old is prime) so Akers should be a staple for Eric for years to come.

I'm not big on Defenses being a staple of teams but I wanted to touch on something scary when doing research. San Francisco was the only team in the entire league last year that didn't have a negative point game. In fact they only had one Zero game all year. If your defense gives up nothing every week they've done their job. Any other points is gravy.

RECOMMENDATIONS
This should be pretty obvious. With the exception of Quarterback, Eric's entire team needs a serious injection of youth. This kind of team is great in the short term. If this was a ReDraft league, it'd be ideal but when looking ahead there's no way this can be sustained. Even a low priority like the SF DEF will lose players as FA comes each year. As I posted on our message board weeks ago, I classify Sproles as a sell high. I fully expect DC's to have better ways to contain him this year. It doesn't help that Sean Payton won't be calling the shots either. Sproles could be sold as an amazing sell high for picks both this year and 1st/2nd next year. However Eric wants to go about it, youth should be on the mind sooner rather than later.

FINAL THOUGHTS
I expect Eric to be a serious threat this year. His team is built for a title run with McFadden starting again. After this year though, it's going to be a hard tumble from the top.

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