XDSFL Breakdown - The Commish

COMMISH ROSTER (Current as of 04/16)

Andy's team strikes me as one that's on the verge of either exploding or imploding. When I look at the roster and the point totals, I have to give it a double take because the players involved don't look like they should be putting up those kinds of numbers. Even now in the off season I have serious doubts about a lot of the roster. However, if the players of whom I have doubt are as steady as last year, Andy's team will be outright scary this year.

Ray Rice is the best fantasy Running Back in the league. AJ Green not only lived up to the hype in his rookie year but more than exceeded it. At 25 and 23 years old respectively, they'll be the foundation of this team for years to come. My curiosity is the players in the RB2 & WR2 position on the team. Marshawn Lynch had the breakout season of his career last year. However, looking at the numbers a little further is scary from a Dynasty perspective. He carried the ball nearly 300 times last year but only averaged 4 Yards Per Carry. That is a hell of a lot of grinding in the trenches. Seattle didn't make any real effort to secure another Running Back in the off season. If Lynch continues to be the feature back with that kind of workload, he'll be destroyed within 2 more seasons. On the Receiver end, it's a lot of what ifs. Jennings is the obvious WR2 but a breakdown of his numbers last year should send off alarms. Aaron Rodgers put up career bests in yards and eclipsed his best TD year by 17. With that being said, Jennings had 3 fewer TD's than last year. What's more important to watch though is that he had 20% less targets than the year before despite Rodgers passing numbers soaring. There's so much potential for the team to blow up but the second line of support could just as easily implode.

Andy has picks 2.09 3.09 4.09 5.09

The 1.09 move for Mendenhall obviously didn't pay off. He's sidelined with an ACL tear and isn't even projected to play the 2012 season at present. Even if that's not accurate, considering the style of play in the Steelers system, his effectiveness will be greatly reduced. The late picks will necessitate a lot of extensive research looking for sleepers. None of the big guns or even the 2nd tier of players that can produce will be available at 19th pick. There's an obvious need at Tight End on Andy's team. Dwayne Allen would seem to be a great fit in that spot for it's value.

PLAYERS ANALYSIS
The following players should not be moved short of both their core position being replaced with at least a lateral move PLUS another player or draft pick of quality.

Philip Rivers
Ray Rice
Marshawn Lynch
CJ Spiller
AJ Green
Greg Jennings
Demaryius Thomas

Ray Rice was the best Running Back in the league bar none last year. He put up 2000+ all purpose yards and 15 touchdowns. What's scary is that 1/3 of his yards came from passing plays. At 25 years old with no major injuries, Rice is in a position to be a top 3 Fantasy Back for the next 3 - 5 years. He can't be moved at any price.

AJ Green was the #1 pick in last year's rookie draft and was well deserving of the pick. At first glance his numbers don't look that impressive against other WR1's. However, a WR1 should be able to provide 1000 yards and 9 Touchdowns over the course of 16 games and Greek was almost there. Last year in a Rookie QB system, Green hit 1100 all purpose yards and 7 TD's. There's no reason at all to believe his production will fall short any time soon short of injury. If he can sustain that production or slightly increase it, he'll be the next Calvin Johnson in terms of worth. He should not be moved.

RECOMMENDATIONS

I was a little surprised to see that Andy passed on moving both Spiller and Thomas. At present, I consider both as huge sell highs. Spiller got a chance to really shine last year when Fred Jackson went down. However, he'll either be relegated back to where he was prior to injury or end up in a RBBC this year. Thomas had a mediocre year last year but he was also in a Tebow system. With Peyton Manning taking the helm, a lot of folks believe he's due to have his breakout year. I have my doubts, mainly because Manning has played his whole career indoors and Denver isn't exactly temperate after September. I think both guys should be moved. Considering Andy's draft position, they could be moved for a high 2nd or mid 1st in package. If either can't produce to expectation this year, their value will plummet.

Tight End needs to be shored up. Hernandez had the best year of his short career last year but the numbers are deceiving. Of his 135 Fantasy Points, 22 of them were in a meaningless week 17. He's the 2nd choice for TE behind Gronkowski. He's also going to see less targets with New England upgrading at Wide Receiver. While I don't think Hernandez should be traded, I do think Andy should look to trade for at least 1 more TE or draft the best TE available in the rookie draft.

FINAL THOUGHTS
I know my review carries a heavy doom and gloom. I still think it's a very big work in progress. If the week 12 miracle of all miracles hadn't occurred last year, Andy would be drafting 1.04 instead of 1.09, which is exactly where I would have pegged his team in terms of rebuild. Considering it overachieved, it set a lot of weird wheels in motion. There are simply too many what ifs or projected drop in production across the board right now to think the team a contender. In a year I could be eating crow but right now I wouldn't be confident in this team having as strong a year without upgrades to shore up consistency.